Peripheral Turmoil Subsided, Resulting In A Stock Psychological Disturbance Weakened.

This week, the market has entered the honeymoon period of overfall, rebound, bad profit, good resonance, emotional recovery and policy warmth.

The overturned rebound kinetic energy has been spun out after the fermentation of the Spring Festival. The disturbance of external turmoil has weakened the psychological disturbance of the A shares. The stabilization of the RMB exchange rate has made the key weakness of the early market pressing rapidly weakened, and the credit has been exceeding expectations, the reform has been accelerating, the policy is expected to improve, the social security fund has increased and so on. The two financial balances have been rising steadily, indicating that the market sentiment is rapidly recovering from the freezing point.

However, we need to remain sober about the "time" and "empty" of the rebound.

In the middle of March, the central bank's Conference on interest rates will release the signal of global financial system contraction, especially in the middle of the year.

Whether or not the interest rate will be postponed will affect the trend of RMB exchange rate to a large extent. Liquidity, monetary policy and stock market expectation will evolve.

Meanwhile, data on industrial added value, fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods will also be disclosed in the first two months of this year.

Results, capacity and credit default risk will gradually become clear, and the macro-economy will become the focus of market operation and risk preference.

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And the two key elements of the economy will soon be unveiled, and the guidelines for the formation of the A interim trend will not exclude some funds from evading uncertainty before the answer is announced.

In view of the fact that the rally is not yet to be continued, the short-term shocks are intensifying, and the medium-term uncertainties remain. On the operation, it is suggested that investors should combine attack and defense, seize the rebound window in the short term, and grasp the certainty of the expected good performance and the expected overachievement of the down selling varieties, and optimize the shareholding structure with the help of concussion.

At the same time, we should remain clear about the nature and time and space of the rebound.

If the two major factors of exchange rate and economy in March are better, it is still not too late to make the medium-term arrangement.

From the space perspective, the Shanghai Composite Index low point 2850 points were broken down after the formation of a strong counter pressure, and the 3000 points above the pressure can not be underestimated, the market needs to repeatedly shake hands to digest pressure, short and short game will also significantly warming.

Therefore, after the rapid rise of the early rebound, the market entered pressure level and deep water area, and the short-term volatility increased.

In addition, constrained by the macroeconomic downturn and the capacity to de leverage, the medium term risk of the A share market remains to be released, and the bottom of the mid term remains to be proved. At present, the market does not have the conditions for reversing and upward trend. The nature of the A-share market is a rebound of overdue rebound, which determines the strength and limited space for the rise.